Demos seek leverage, cash from events, polling
Democrats are beginning to feel optimistic about their chances in the gubernatorial race this fall, a prospect that would have been unthinkable back in early May . . . but we are wondering whether this year may better resemble 2012, when Democrats started out well behind then-U.S. Rep. Mike Pence (R), but closed the gap to the point where if the race had lasted another week or 10 days, former House speaker John Gregg (D) might have pulled off the upset.
As it was, 2012 was the only time a victorious Republican candidate for governor has won without a majority (49.49%), as Democrats set a 28-year high-water mark (46.56%) for a losing Demo guv hopeful (since the 1972 constitutional change authorizing two consecutive four-year terms, only Wayne Townsend (R) in 1984 earned more votes (47.18%), but the GOP winner still earned a majority).
Spoiler alert: Everything we’re picking up from pols and polls (internal, particularly at the legislative district level) suggests that Republicans will underperform in the gubernatorial race, but that Democrats will not necessarily overperform and U.S. Sen. Mike Braun (R) will likely win the gubernatorial race, but with less than a majority and likely the smallest overall percentage of any GP candidate in the modern era. Jennifer McCormick (D) will have a tough time cracking the 40% mark absent an apathetic Trump Indiana electorate, but has the highest potential ceiling of all three candidates.
Republicans who ostensibly want to see Braun succeed lament the litany of mistakes since early May: (1) 60% of GOPrimary voters voting against Braun; (2) Braun’s ill-conceived choice of a running mate whom he failed to effectively support in the convention – and the ill-will it generated from former president Donald Trump (R) who placed his prestige on the line at Braun’s request to back that pick; (3) the lack of any support for Braun’s pick for state party chair; (4) the rollout of a flawed property tax relief plan despite many months in which to prepare it and consult with experts – or even local GOP officials whose units of government would be hurt by it; (5) the absence of any post-primary fence-mending or reaching out to broaden the Braun campaign circle; (6) a less-than-covert vetting effort to already stock a Braun Administration; (7) a late launch of television advertising, with an uninspiring initial bio spot; (8) the close alliance between Hoosier HOPE and the Braun campaign on his policy proposals, raising questions about who is driving Braun policy decisions; (9) what some suggest is internal hubris preventing Braun from recognizing weakness in early – and now consistent – problematic polling; and (10) the first hit spot against McCormick that campaign pros found unconvincing, and which produced justifiable embarrassing blowback for the campaign over obviously manipulated images lacking the required disclaimer.
The Braun campaign – and its principal – have also found it difficult to incorporate lieutenant governor candidate Micah Beckwith (R) into the campaign . . . or distance themselves as appropriate when Beckwith baffles with a social media post or campaign trail comment. What would have been an automatic disqualifier for any other candidate in prior decades has proven acceptable in the current era of political rhetoric, but Braun and his inner circle – just like other GOP officials and Republican down ballot candidates – have not quite yet discerned how much Beckwith and his new age politics helps or hinders them.
If we had a dollar for every Republican elected official, political pro, lobbyist, or even just life-long party backer who has told us “I can’t vote for Micah,” we’d probably have enough to make a dent in the Medicaid deficit (or fully fund the McCormick challenge!). We sense that the widespread discomfort with Beckwith is even tougher for Braun to overcome because he has not developed a statewide network or personal reservoir of goodwill like Indiana’s last three successive GOP governors that he can lean back on.
Beckwith may be the excuse some need not to be there for Braun, but we’re also fully cognizant that much of this comes from the elite, and that 95% of the electorate probably has no clue that there is a guy named Micah Beckwith even running for governor, nor that the Noblesville pastor this week frames the gubernatorial race as a choice that Hoosiers must make between “godly boldness” and “the Jezebel spirit.”
Democrats are already fundraising off Beckwith comments. A fundraising missive this week began by suggesting that “Every week it seems Micah Beckwith is saying something absurd about Hoosiers. This time it’s that the Democratic ticket led by women is promoting the ‘Jezebel spirit’. What on earth? If you’ve had enough of Micah’s antics, you can chip into our efforts today to help win in November. Last week, he announced the formation of a Christian nationalist advisory board made up of folks who believe what he does about women and would force Micah’s personal and religious beliefs onto regular Hoosiers. What about separation of church and state? And this week, his comments as a guest on a podcast compare Democrats to those who practice witchcraft,” the fundraising email continued.
The Beckwith comments also afforded a chance for McCormick to go on the offensive in Tuesday night’s debate with Barin (the Libertarian was excluded from Wednesday’s Nexstar television network debate), and Ds believe the contrast between LG running mates breaks in their direction, particularly solidifying the D base and helping to attract independents.
That said, the McCormick campaign, while scrappy, has lacked the resources that Team Braun has been able to assemble . . . at least until now. A lot of the public polling you have seen in the race has been commissioned by Democrats to convince national Democratic donors and groups to play in the race, particularly the Democratic Governors Association. When DGA saw some of the early polling and independent national political media start to switch the race from “Safe” or “Solid” Republican to “Likely Republican” (Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales was the latest, on September 26) without much spending by Democrats or a singular reason to point to as moving the needle, DGA took notice and did their own polling.
As that was transpiring, state and national GOP sources – including the Republican Governors Association – poured another $450,000 total into Braun coffers, as the candidate has steadfastly followed through on his vow not to use personal funds in this race after plowing more than $10 million of his own cash into his 2016 U.S. Senate race, a contest in which fundraising was made more difficult by low limits on individual contributions from anyone but the candidate personally.
Those numbers – and much of what we described to you above, including Braun going negative on McCormick so quickly – have convinced national Democrats to free some significant opportunity capital on behalf of McCormick. DGA only has less than a literal handful of races across the country in which it has planned to involve itself, and none requires real resources (such as which could tip the balance or save a seat). Thus, Indiana presents a real prospect for Democrats nationally, one in which they can invest what is considered big money locally, but would be shrugged off as “chump change” in any state larger than us.
In that spirit, we’re hearing that DGA has agreed to commit an amount between $500,000 and $750,000 that, as of late week, features – as the Indiana Fever’s Aliyah Boston might say, “multiple commas” – to Indiana as the Hoosier gubernatorial race has emerged as quickly this month on the national scene as the Indiana University football program. DGA hasn’t prominently played in the Crossroads in a few cycles (since 2016, where it may still regret not having lent a hand earlier in that year), and the big question we have is whether this will be a one-time spend or whether they will be tracking closely to see if a second tranche could prove decisive at mid-month.
Look for that cash infusion to help fund a strong voter targeting and turnout field operation for McCormick; television and radio spots better positioning McCormick as sharing many of the values of Hoosier Republicans, but not the current extremism (much like her intro spot, adding in some of the edge
of Democratic legislative attacks on the supermajority), and homing in on the abortion, IVF, and birth control angle, adding in the perspective that Republicans shouldn’t want government making these decisions for women and their families.
Expect digital advertising to wrap Beckwith around the neck of Braun and statewide Republicans and explain to voters why he is an albatross, driving Braun to even more extremist positions. Internet advertising will also seek to tie Braun to Jim Bopp, Jr. and the Hoosier HOPE team, portraying that entity as the Indiana equivalent of the Trump/Heritage Foundation Project 2025, and outlining purported motives of that entity’s board.
You’ll also see more face-forward campaign emphasis on LG nominee Terry Goodin (D) if national Ds pony up the cash, and he’ll be shown in his roles as cattle farmer, public school superintendent; and legislative leader, in contrast to what they will likely show as Beckwith preaching from the pulpit and from the front seat of his van.
Donald Rainwater (L) has been polling in the six percent to nine percent range after peeling off 11.4% of the vote – probably all from Governor Eric Holcomb (R) – in the 2020 gubernatorial race. While that’s a percentage variance of as much as 50%, the percentage-point difference is well within the margin of error in each poll, and political pros tell us to place a wager on Rainwater at an eight percent ceiling.
If you agree with that Rainwater level and then award McCormick 45% of the vote (effectively the average for each losing Democratic open-seat candidate in the last 30 years), Braun ends up winning with 47%, and just a two-point margin . . . just like that 2012 open-seat race won by Republicans that might have gone the other way with another week of campaigning.